HSBC Sees Dior Helping LVMH Rebound in 2026

A “thorough reboot” at Dior — thanks to management tweaks and a new star creative director in Jonathan Anderson — should translate into a “proper V-shaped recovery” at the brand, with 10 percent sales growth in 2026 at constant exchange rates.

That’s the prognosis of a new HSBC report, which puts the linchpin fashion and leather goods division of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton under the microscope, concluding that Dior represents the “key bull case” and Louis Vuitton the “key bear case,” though the latter could still eke out growth of around 2.5 percent this year.

According to HSBC tallies, the division represents only 47 percent of group sales but 72 percent of earnings before interest and taxes, and Dior and Vuitton the “two out of the 75-plus brands the group holds that can move the needle for the stock.”

“We trust Dior is starting to perform and will gradually accelerate as the year progresses,” Erwan Rambourg, HSBC’s global head of luxury and consumer, wrote in the report, noting that Dior had a “rough patch in 2024 and 2025” due to “greedflation” — raising prices too quickly — and a lack of creativity.

The analyst applauded that Dior is now offering “more palatable price points” with its Toujours, Groove and D-Motion handbag ranges.

A separate report from J.P. Morgan also flagged “noticeable efforts to reenergize the accessible price points” at Dior, calculating that 43 percent of 108 new stock keeping units in the women’s spring 2026 collection rang in at less than 1,000 euros, across fashion jewelry, charms and accessories. So-called aspirational products start at 200 euros, for a Dioramour Mitzah scarf.

HSBC’s Rambourg said he expects increased traffic in Dior stores: “We trust that with Jonathan Anderson running the Dior creative show, there is more poetic positive potential than risk.”

The report noted that “wave one” of Anderson-related products will hit stores more meaningfully from March, after an initial drop of products in early January. HSBC expects Dior to turn positive in the first quarter after high-single-digit sales declines last year.

Meanwhile, the bank predicts that Vuitton, the behemoth of the group, will not grow as quickly as the rest of the fashion and leather division.

Still, it applauds the shift away from the “aspirational skew of the brand” over the last two years, as the sector was driven by high-net-worth consumers.

“The brand is refocused on the art of travel, icons and more elevated media assets, impactful retail initiatives and successful launches,” the report said. “We think LV has the potential to reach 30 billion euros eventually, but space expansion is tougher to bring about, as is category expansion, and the algorithm of growth is more muted structurally now.”

As for the other brands in the fashion and leather goods division, HSBC is optimistic on Rimowa, Loewe, Loro Piana, Fendi and Celine, and less so on Marc Jacobs, Givenchy, Pucci, Kenzo and Berluti.

Rambourg said he expects a pickup at Fendi in the second half of 2026 with the arrival of Rome-born designer Maria Grazia Chiuri, who previously helmed Dior for nine years, and he highlighted “a more commercial approach” at Celine by new designer Michael Rider.

The analyst believes Rimowa “has been one of the fastest-growing brands in LVMH for several years in a row and sales are likely around the 1 billion-euro mark, while we believe it is quite profitable.”

For the full year 2026, HSBC forecasts 4.6 percent organic growth at LVMH. It has a buy rating on the stock.